We all know that IPv4 is getting long in the tooth and that its younger, smarter brother IPv6 has been waiting in the wings for far too long now. Might we finally be seeing the signs of the end days for IPv4?
Wait. I know, you have heard this before. Yes, there has been a lot of crying wolf this decade but there are strong signs that it has finally left the realm of fiction.
When you look at something like the ANT Census of the Internet Address Space, the empty IPv4 space appears to be vast, but that's only based on an ICMP scan. Some IPs have firewalls in place to only allow access to certain sources. Others have ICMP blocked, and in the case of ISPs some entire ranges will only be intermittently active. No one really knows how much of the address space is really in use.
What they do know is that the amount of new blocks to allocate is running dangerously low. The reports vary anywhere between one and three years.
After that, what will we have? IPs For Sale. Yes, party to party selling of IP address spaces without control by the IANA or any other group. Can you say seller's market?
But there is a problem with trading, beyond the obvious price gouging to come. Many available address spaces have become Internet Ghost-towns, IPs made toxic by previous malicious activity that has earned them a spot on blacklists. A fellow Trender was recently quoted in The Washington Post:
"The problem is once an address block gets so polluted and absorbed into all these blocklists, it's difficult to get off all of them because there is no central blocking authority," said Paul Ferguson, an advanced threat researcher at Trend Micro. "That space won't be toxic for all time to come, but certainly it is going to be tainted for whoever ends up with it..."
Lovely, just what I wanted for Christmas, a tainted IP.
So is this it? I for one hope so. IPv6 bring it on, then we can worry about this again sometime after Y10K.
